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交通统计分析(硕士)教学大纲

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Course Outline:
1. Course Introduction
Key topics: What is statistical analysis?
 Why do we need statistical analysis in Transportation Engineering?
   Real examples of statistical analysis for transportation engineering
Materials:
o Washington, S., Karlaftis, M., and Mannering, F. (2003). Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL, 425 pages.
o Wooldridge, J. (2003). Introductory Econometrics, A Modern Approach, 2nd edition, South-Western.
Examples:
o Wang X., Abdel-Aty M., Nevarez A. and Santos J. Investigation of Safety Influence Area For Four-legged Signalized Intersections: Nationwide Survey and Empirical Inquiry. Accepted for publication in the Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008.
o 王雪松,石琦.城市隧道交通运行与交通安全特征研究——以上海市翔殷路隧道为例。中国安全科学学报,2011, 第21卷,第12期。

2. Some Preliminaries
Key topics:
o Independent and Dependent variables—definitions
o Measurement Scales
o Operational Definitions
o J. S. Mill’s Methods
 Scientific method—(as commonly described)
 Other approaches to scientific method

3. Research Methods I
o Observational research
o Correlational research
o Epidemiological methods
 Cross sectional
 Case control
 Case Crossover
Case Study 1--“Association Between Cellular-Telephone Calls and Motor Vehicle Collisions”

4. Research Methods II—Experimental research
o Single subject research
o Multiple subject research
 Factorial designs: Between subject; Within subject (repeated measures)
Case Study 2--“Comparison of the Cell Phone Driver and the Drunk Driver”

5. Probability Theory
Key topics: Descriptive statistics
Statistical distributions and statistical tests
Materials:
o Wooldridge, J. (2003). Introductory Econometrics, A Modern Approach, 2nd edition, South-Western.
o Washington, S., Karlaftis, M., and Mannering, F. (2003). Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL.

6. Linear Regression
Key topics: Review of least squares regression; maximum likelihood estimation; multiple linear regression; how to interpret model.
Materials:
o Wooldridge, J. (2003). Introductory Econometrics, A Modern Approach, 2nd edition, South-Western.

7. Generalized Linear Model: Count-data Models
Key topics: Poisson regression; negative binomial; zero-inflated models count-data models
Materials:
o Cameron, A. and Trivedi, P. (1998). Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Examples:
o Wang X. and Abdel-Aty M. Modeling Left-Turn Crash Occurrence at Signalized Intersections by Conflicting Pattern. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2008, Volume 40. pp. 76-88. (SSCI, Ei)
o Wang X. and Abdel-Aty M. Right-Angle Crash Occurrence at Signalized Intersections, In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2019, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2007, pp. 156-168. (SCI, Ei)
o Wang X. and Abdel-Aty M. Temporal and Spatial Analyses of Rear-end Crashes at Signalized Intersections. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Volume 38, issue 6, 2006. pp. 1137-1150. (SSCI, Ei)
o Abdel-Aty M. and Wang X. Crash Estimation at Signalized Intersections along Corridors: Analyzing Spatial Effect and Identifying Significant Factors. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1953, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2006, pp. 98-111. (SCI, Ei)
o Wang X., Abdel-Aty M., and Brady, P. Crash Estimation at Signalized Intersections: Significant Factors and Temporal Effect. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1953, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2006, pp. 10-20. (SCI, Ei)

8. Discrete Choice Models
Key topics: Why not linear regression for discrete choice models?
Why do we need logit models?
Economic theory and discrete choice models
What are binary logit/probit models?
Properties and estimation of multinomial logit model.
What is nested logit model?
What is mixed logit model?
What is ordered logit/probit models?
Application of discrete choice models in transportation engineering (e.g., planning, severity analysis).
Materials:
o Train, K. (2003). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge University Press.
o Koppelman, F. and C. Bhat. A Self Instructing Course in Mode Choice Modeling: Multinomial and Nested Logit Models. 2006.
o McFadden, D. Economic Choices, The American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 3 (Jun., 2001), pp. 351-378.
o Abdel-Aty, M. and Abdelwahab, H. Calibration of Nested-Logit Mode-Choice Models for Florida, University of Central Florida, 2001.
o Ben-Akiva, M. and Lerman, S. R.  Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1985.
o Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. (5 ed.) Prentice Hall.
Examples:
o Wang X., Abdel-Aty M., Nevarez A. and Santos J. Investigation of Safety Influence Area For Four-legged Signalized Intersections: Nationwide Survey and Empirical Inquiry. Accepted for publication in the Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008. (binary logit)
o Wang X. and Abdel-Aty M. Analyses of Left-Turn Crash Injury Severity by Conflicting Pattern Using Partial Proportional Odds Models. Accepted for publication in the Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2008. (ordered models)

9. Panel Data Models
Key topics: transportation planning process; what is urban transportation planning
Materials:
o Wooldridge, J. (2003). Introductory Econometrics, A Modern Approach, 2nd edition, South-Western.
o Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. (5 ed.) Prentice Hall.
o Wooldridge, J. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. MIT Press.
Examples:
o Wang X. and Abdel-Aty M. Temporal and Spatial Analyses of Rear-end Crashes at Signalized Intersections. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Volume 38, issue 6, 2006. pp. 1137-1150. (SSCI, Ei)
o Abdel-Aty M. and Wang X. Crash Estimation at Signalized Intersections along Corridors: Analyzing Spatial Effect and Identifying Significant Factors. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1953, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2006, pp. 98-111. (SCI, Ei)
o Wang X., Abdel-Aty M., and Brady, P. Crash Estimation at Signalized Intersections: Significant Factors and Temporal Effect. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1953, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2006, pp. 10-20. (SCI, Ei)

10. Before and After Analysis
Key topics: transportation planning process; what is urban transportation planning
Materials:
o Hauer, E. Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety (Hardcover).
o Wen Li, Alicia Carriquiry, Michael Pawlovich, Thomas Welch. The choice of statistical models in road safety countermeasure effectiveness studies in Iowa.
Accident Analysis & Prevention, Volume 40, Issue 4, July 2008, Pages 1531-1542.

11. Hierarchical and Bayesian Modeling Methods
Key topics: Hierarchical models; Bayesian modeling method.
Materials:
o "Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models," by Gelman and Hill (2007).
o "Bayesian Data Analysis," by Gelman, Carlin, Stern, and Rubin (2004).
Examples:
o Guo F., Wang X., Abdel-Aty M. Modeling Signalized Intersection Safety with Corridor Level Spatial Correlations. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Volume 42, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 84-92. (SSCI, Ei).

12. Time Series Analysis
Key topics: basic ideas of time series models.
Materials:
o Wooldridge, J. (2003). Introductory Econometrics, A Modern Approach, 2nd edition, South-Western.
o Enders, W. Applied Econometric Time Series, second edition, 2004, Wiley.
o James Hamilton, Time Series Analysis, 1994, Princeton.

13. Data Mining
Key topics: basic ideas of data mining (e.g., Neural Network, Decision Tree); SAS Enterprise Miner
Materials:
o Class note of Data Preparation for Data Mining at UCF 2004 Spring.

14. How to Do Research?
Key topics: How to find and organize related reference?
   How to write an academic paper?
Materials:
o Wooldridge, J. (2003). Introductory Econometrics, A Modern Approach, 2nd edition, South-Western.
o Reference Manager

15. Term Project/Paper Presentation
Date: December.

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