Abstract: Accurate identification of crash hotspots forms the foundation of roadway safety improvement. The Highway Safety Manual micro-level approach uses individual intersections and road segments as analysis units, and correspondingly identifies some isolated road entities as hotspots. However, because traffic police and administrative agencies routinely conduct safety improvement based on multiple continuous segments and intersections, the identification of hotspots at the micro-level is inefficient for field application. To better meet this need, this study proposes a new meso-level approach to identify hotspots, specifically on suburban arterials. Meso-level analysis units of three different configurations (201, 150, and 100 units) were obtained by combining a set number of intersections and their adjacent segments according to crash distribution and homogeneity. Their influence areas were determined according to the proportion of urbanized land in areas perpendicularly adjacent to the arterials. Three Bayesian Poisson-lognormal conditional autoregressive models (PLN-CAR) considering spatial correlations were developed for each unit configuration, using the full Bayesian (FB) method to ameliorate random fluctuation in crash counts. Potential for safety improvement (PSI) values were calculated based on the modeling results and were used to identify hotspots. Two measures, i.e., the concentrated degree of hotspots (CDH) and the hotspot identification accuracy (HIA), were proposed to make a quantitative and comparative evaluation. Results showed that 1) arterials with more parallel roads suffer lower crash risk, and 2) considering both the hotspot distribution and the identification accuracy, the 150 meso-level unit configuration was the best. The proposed meso-level hotspot identification method promises to be adaptive to safety improvement practices on suburban arterials.
Xuesong Wang, Yingying Pei, MinmingYang, Jinghui Yuan. Meso-level hotspot identification for suburban arterials. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Volume 156, June 2021, 106148.