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Large scale injury severity analysis for arterial roads: modeling scheme and contributing factors

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Alexis Nevarez,Mohamed Abdel-Aty,Xuesong Wang,Joseph Santos

Abstract:Recent initiatives to improve safety on major highway corridors have demonstrated the need to apply innovative methods to analyze arterial road safety performance. A large scale injury severity analysis for arterial roads in Florida was conducted using roadway and crash information. The purpose was to compare the reliability of different arterial road crash involvement modeling frameworks (combining crash locations versus traditional analysis by location) and to improve the understanding of contributing factors. In the first phase of the investigation, logistic regression models of all driver involvements and by roadway locations (i.e. segments and intersections) were developed and compared. The second phase involved an extension of these models, controlling by crash types, including rear-end, angle, and left turn. The results suggest a method for arterial road systematic analysis by modeling for all crashes combined complemented by two models of involvements at signalized intersections and on segments combined with access points (non-signalized intersections). The crash type models showed some possible safety strategies not clearly shown by the road entity models alone. Important contributing factors were significant, including driver age, gender, speeding, aggressive driving, seat belt use, alcohol or drug use, driver ejection, type of collision, type of vehicle and point of impact. Significant road related factors included speed limit Average Daily Traffic (ADT) per lane, access management class, land use, lane and sidewalk width, roadway lighting, curves, and friction characteristics. Suggested applications for future crash analysis and roadway design guidelines are discussed.

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