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Factors Impacting Freeway Safety: An Analysis of Single- and Multi- Vehicle Crashes in Shanghai

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Xuesong Wang, Yan Li, Ting Wang, XiaoKun Wang, Rongjie Yu

 
The freeway mileage and traffic volume in Shanghai have been increasing fast in recent years. However, the traffic safety situation on freeways is also getting increasingly concerning. No comprehensive safety evaluation studies have been conducted so far due to the lack of reliable traffic and crash data. In order to identify the different contributing factors for single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) crashes, information about the geometric design features and traffic operational characteristics on a 45km-long freeway segment in Shanghai has been collected. The Finite Mixture of Negative Binominal regression models (FMNB) were applied to analyze SV and MV crashes separately. The two-component FMNB model produced the best goodness-of-fit. The modeling results suggested that segment length had significant influence, indicating that analyzing the whole segment as one homogenous sample is inappropriate. Moreover, only segment length and the indicator variable for three-lane segments showed consistent effects on both SV and MV crashes, while all other significant variables’ effects were different. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate SV and MV crashes separately.

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